di Anna Rita Germani*
La COP28 che si sta svolgendo in questi giorni a Dubai (dal 30 novembre al 12 dicembre 2023) è stata già definita il vertice delle contraddizioni, non solo perché gli Emirati Arabi Uniti sono uno dei Paesi con le più alte emissioni pro-capite di gas serra al mondo, ma anche perché alla guida dei negoziati mondiali sul clima quest’anno vi è il sultano Al Jaber, capo dell’azienda petrolifera statale degli Emirati Arabi Uniti, e il rischio è che il suo ruolo/la sua posizione danneggi la credibilità delle trattative (fanno già discutere le sue parole, in un video diffuso da alcuni media internazionali nel quale si sarebbe espresso contro l’eliminazione dei combustibili fossili).
Sul risultato della Conferenza, inoltre, preoccupa il tentativo di rilancio del nucleare come presunta soluzione per il clima; gli Stati Uniti e altri 21 paesi, tra cui Francia e Gran Bretagna, si sono impegnati infatti a triplicare la capacità di energia nucleare entro il 2050, mentre la Germania ha spento gli ultimi tre reattori nucleari nella scorsa primavera.
Nel vertice del 2021 a Glasgow, i partecipanti avevano promesso di ridurre le sovvenzioni inefficienti per i combustibili fossili e, invece, proprio nel 2022 questi finanziamenti statali hanno raggiunto la cifra record di 1700 miliardi di dollari. Un recentissimo report promosso dall’UNEP ha sottolineato come, nonostante in molti casi abbiano presentato obiettivi di azzeramento delle proprie emissioni di gas serra, i 20 più importanti paesi produttori di combustibili fossili hanno programmi di sviluppo della produzione di carbone, petrolio e gas del tutto incompatibili con l’Accordo di Parigi, che al 2030 porterebbero queste nazioni a produrre in un anno il doppio dei combustibili fossili che potremmo materialmente consumare.
Ormai è chiaro che abbandonare urgentemente i combustibili fossili è necessario ma purtroppo non è sufficiente. Anche se potessimo decarbonizzare l’economia domani, non avremmo ancora un futuro sostenibile fino a quando non adotteremo misure in grado di preservare la biodiversità e gli ecosistemi. Le disuguaglianze economiche, poi, stanno esplodendo e con esse accelera il cambiamento climatico. Oxfam con un nuovo rapporto a pochi giorni dall’inizio della COP28, ha lanciato l’allarme sul fatto che nel 2019, l’1% più ricco della popolazione mondiale è stato responsabile di una quota di emissioni di CO2 pari a quella prodotta da 5 miliardi di persone, ossia due terzi dell’umanità.
«Stiamo vivendo il collasso climatico in tempo reale», ha affermato qualche giorno fa il segretario generale dell’ONU, António Guterres, e la COP28 offre un’opportunità per una svolta significativa. Cercare accordi i) sui tagli alle emissioni di CO2, ii) sui pagamenti per riparare i danni subiti dai paesi più poveri, che sono quelli che contribuiscono meno alla crisi climatica ma che, al tempo stesso, ne subiscono le conseguenze peggiori, e iii) sulla creazione di un sistema più equo di finanziamento climatico per i paesi più poveri, sono tutte sfide fondamentali per salvare gli obiettivi sul clima, ma la miopica visione del mondo riflessa nell’attuale approccio economico e nel sovrasfruttamento delle risorse naturali su scala globale, rischia di destabilizzare l’intero pianeta.
L’approccio del paradigma economico dominante che considera i mercati come players incontrastati delle moderne economie globalizzate non riesce a offrire indicazioni precise su come affrontare fenomeni di tale portata. Inoltre, gli strumenti analitici interpretativi di cui oggi gli economisti dispongono non sono adatti a studiare beni pubblici globali come la qualità dell’aria, in particolare se si mantengono rigidamente ancorati ai presupposti che legano le scelte di efficienza economica ai principi del marginalismo individualista.
Il pensiero economico neoliberista considera il cambiamento climatico come un fallimento del mercato e, in quanto tale, viene inquadrato al pari dell’inquinamento convenzionale. Le emissioni di gas serra vengono quindi trattate teoricamente come esternalità negative, suscettibili di una soluzione di mercato (ad esempio, determinare il prezzo delle emissioni di CO2 in modo che produttori e consumatori paghino i costi). Evidentemente, lo strumento della variazione dei prezzi relativi, che attraverso il libero funzionamento delle forze di mercato, avrebbe dovuto assicurare nel tempo la sostituzione di quei beni divenuti scarsi e più costosi (ad es., petrolio, carbone e gas), con altri resi più convenienti, non è stato sufficiente, da solo a contrastare il cambiamento climatico.
Mi sembra di poter affermare che, pur continuando a muoversi all’interno del controverso paradigma della crescita sostenibile, e dunque senza mettere in discussione l’assunto da molti criticato di una possibile conciliazione tra obiettivi di decarbonizzazione e sviluppo economico, non vi sia ancora, da parte dei delegati della COP28, un superamento chiaro e netto dei dogmi della massimizzazione del profitto e della crescita illimitata di produzioni e consumi, che andrebbero invece oggi progressivamente abbandonati, non solo per i costi climatici che comportano ma anche per l’impatto profondamente negativo che stanno avendo in termini di conflitti sociali e ingiustizie ambientali.
* Professoressa Sapienza Università di Roma
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