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di Ornella Del Guasto*

Dopo il tragico attentato alla Crocus City Hall costato centinaia di vittime tra morti e feriti, il mondo in preda all’angoscia cerca confusamente di prepararsi alla risposta di Mosca. L’attentato è stato rivendicato dall’ISIS e comunque si è trattato di uno smacco per Putin che dopo un’eccezionale affermazione alle elezioni ha dimostrato di non essere in grado di garantire sicurezza ai suoi cittadini. Per questo, con funambolica prontezza, ha comunicato al mondo di aver arrestato i quattro terroristi tagiki esecutori materiali della strage e di aver individuato nell’Ucraina il vero mandante della tragedia. Immediata la reazione di Kiev che ha negato ogni responsabilità accusando di rimando la Russia di aver organizzato l’attentato come comodo pretesto per scatenare la controffensiva. Quale che sia la vera versione, molti tra gli analisti dubitano della tesi russa perché, in caso di inasprimento del conflitto, l’Ucraina si troverebbe in posizione di debolezza per mancanza di armi adeguate: Kiev non aveva alcun interesse a esporsi direttamente contro Mosca con un attentato che le avrebbe fatto rischiare ritorsioni pesantissime. Che non hanno tardato comunque ad arrivare: missili ipersonici hanno bombardato direttamente il centro di Kiev e nei giorni successivi, secondo la rivista Defense Express, uno sciame di missili, bombe e droni ha colpito a più riprese le regioni di Odessa, Mykolaiv e le città sulla frontiera ucraina.

Dopo la rivendicazione dell’ISIS e le contrastanti teorie internazionali, Vladimir Putin è stato costretto ad ammettere che la responsabilità materiale della strage a opera di “radicali islamisti”, aggiungendo però: “L’attacco è stata un’intimidazione alla Russia ed è necessario sapere chi ne abbia beneficiato”, lasciando trasparire l’accusa che dietro mandanti ed esecutori ci sia la strategia bellica degli USA e della Gran Bretagna, tanto impegnate a “cercare di convincere tutti” che Kiev non ha avuto alcun ruolo. Un’accusa che suona tanto più inverosimile dal momento che circa un mese fa Mosca era stata allertata proprio dai servizi segreti americani che avevano intercettato la possibile pianificazione di un attacco terroristico sul territorio russo da parte del terrorismo jihadista.

Ma quale è la provenienza degli attentatori? Appartengono a Wilayat Khorasan, un gruppo emanazione della branca afghana dell’ISIS, l’organizzazione paramilitare dell’Iraq fondata nel 2014. Il nome Khorasan si traduce in “La terra del sole”, e secondo il Centro per gli studi Strategici e Internazionali, si riferisce a una regione storica che comprende parti dell’Iran, dell’Afghanistan e del Pakistan, che si pone come obiettivo la fondazione di un nuovo califfato aggreghi anche alcune ex repubbliche sovietiche, come il Turkmenistan, il Tagikistan e l’Uzbekistan. Un’esplicita minaccia per la Russia, che non dimentica le ribellioni islamiste nel Caucaso settentrionale, in particolare in Daghestan e in Cecenia, che produssero negli anni ’90 una lunga serie di sanguinosi attentati e stragi di civili in varie città russe, compresa la capitale.

Il nuovo terrorismo islamico secondo gli analisti ha due componenti. Da una parte è composta dal ritornante contagio proveniente da Sud, dal Caucaso e dall’Asia centrale dove lo jihadismo non si è mai del tutto esaurito e sull’onda lunga dell’Afghanistan periodicamente riemerge. L’altra possibile componente riguarda paradossalmente le brigate di fuoriusciti russi che combattono in Ucraina accanto all’Ucraina. Si tratta di russi cobelligeranti che hanno scelto di mettersi al fianco degli ucraini contro Mosca, e da coloro che dal Caucaso e dall’Asia centrale organizzano questo genere di destabilizzazione.

L’ISIS da circa dieci anni ha installato la sua base in Afghanistan in territori dove sono concentrate migliaia di estremisti e molti sono stranieri delle repubbliche centroasiatiche con le loro famiglie: tagiki, uzbeki, turkmeni e altri, che hanno giurato fedeltà a vari gruppi jihadisti e allo Stato islamico. Le sue fila, informano gli esperti, si stanno ingrossando anche di defezionisti talebani, tradizionalmente nemici, che oggi invece vedono nel Khorasan un progetto più dinamico e meglio remunerato dell’originale, creando di fatto una faida con gli islamisti tradizionali diventata una vera e propria guerra intestina. Isis-K progressivamente è anche riuscita a drenare in Asia centrale diverse migliaia di “foreign fighters” già impiegati in Siria e Iraq e mentre nel 2016 sembrava essere stata messa in difficoltà dall’azione antiterrorismo degli Stati Uniti, dal 2020 ha ripreso vigore.

Tre i punti di forza di Isis-K: “l’isolamento strutturale rispetto al fronte del Sahel e a quello di Siria e Iraq, una fortissima regionalizzazione del gruppo e il suo carattere transnazionale che vede la compresenza di molte etnie tra tagiki, uzbeki, kazaki, afghani e pakistani, tale da consentire una maggiore mobilità in Centro Asia”, spiega il professor Arije Antinori, criminologo di Sapienza. Le sue principali fonti di approvvigionamento sono il narcotraffico e le azioni criminali agevolate da due conflitti aperti – in Ucraina e a Gaza – che rendono il traffico di armi eccezionalmente florido e la possibilità di reclutamento molto più facile. Tra i vari stati del gruppo, il Tagikistan è uno dei più poveri. I tagiki sono dappertutto (un milione e mezzo d’emigrati è solo in Russia) e l’economia del Paese si regge sulle loro rimesse dall’estero per cui è difficile per le intelligence controllarne i movimenti. I tagiki sono in prevalenza foreign fighters, i peggio pagati, i più disponibili, terroristi in franchising, pronti a tutto per pochi dollari (5 mila dollari ciascuno come per gli attentatori di Mosca).

Detto questo, la strage della Crocus City Hall ha cambiato tutto. Tra i membri della Nato sta prendendo corpo il timore di qualche “provocazione” da parte della Russia, che ha trovato il pretesto per saggiare la capacità di reazione degli avversari. Non a caso, pochi giorni dopo un missile russo ha violato lo spazio aereo della Polonia per 39 secondi, facendo innalzare l’allerta della Nato, e il giorno successivo due aerei militari russi sono stati intercettati mentre volavano sui cieli internazionali. “Il sostegno della Nato alla Polonia è di ferro”, ha assicurato la Casa Bianca dopo la notizia.

Ma intanto i Paesi baltici e quelli vicini- Lettonia, Estonia, Lituania, Finlandia, Svezia, Polonia – sono sempre più preoccupati dai venti di guerra e invitano la Nato a non lasciar correre le provocazioni russe mentre rafforzano militarmente i propri confini. Pessimista il premier polacco Donald Tusk che in un’intervista esorta gli altri Paesi europei a fare di più per prepararsi a un eventuale confronto armato con la Russia. Tusk sostiene infatti che le ambizioni espansionistiche di Putin vadano ben oltre i confini dell’Ucraina, aiutato dalle armi cinesi e nordcoreane. A farne le spese, a suo avviso, saranno i Paesi che confinano con la Russia: “la guerra è già iniziata 2 anni fa, stiamo ormai vivendo nell’era prebellica e l’Europa deve prepararsi a questo rafforzando la Difesa”.

Ma, nonostante le reciproche minacce, sottobanco la trattativa tra i servizi di intelligence russi e americani per evitare l’escalation della “questione Ucraina” procede nel tracciato di offrire qualche concessione territoriale a Mosca e, contemporaneamente, contenere l’irruenza di Zelensky assicurandogli che il Congresso americano sbloccherà il pacchetto di aiuti da 60 miliardi di dollari all’Ucraina. A giugno Kiev riceverà ì primi 6 dei 45 velivoli F16 promessi dall’Occidente che certo non gli faranno vincere la guerra ma potrebbero essere efficaci su una porzione territoriale circoscritta, come una città. Nello stesso tempo però si intimerà a Zelenski di non forzare la mano ora che nel conflitto si è infilato ufficialmente anche il terrorismo islamico.

*Political and socio-economic analyst

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