di Luigia Tauro*
Chi ha vissuto l’evoluzione esponenziale della capacità di calcolo negli ultimi decenni ricorderà come, già nel 1965, il fondatore di Intel, Gordon Moore, predisse che la densità dei transistor su un microchip si sarebbe raddoppiata ogni anno (con una diminuzione del 50% dei costi nello stesso periodo). Successivamente, nel 1975, Moore limò la previsione, affermando che il raddoppio si sarebbe verificato ogni 18 mesi. Questa previsione, nota come legge di Moore, si è dimostrata veritiera negli ultimi 50 anni, consentendoci oggi di avere una potenza di calcolo superiore a quella utilizzata nella missione lunare Apollo del 1969 nel palmo delle nostre mani, grazie ai nostri telefoni.
Ciò che affascina di più nella legge di Moore e nello sviluppo esponenziale della capacità di calcolo è che un’ipotesi teorica basata sulla possibilità chimica di miniaturizzare sempre più efficientemente il silicio dei transistor è stata supportata da enormi investimenti sia pubblici che privati, volti a concretizzare le necessarie innovazioni tecnologiche per la progettazione, produzione e commercializzazione dei nuovi microprocessori. In altre parole, la legge di Moore è stata una potente previsione di ciò che un settore potrebbe realizzare, grazie all’esperienza, al successo iniziale e alla collaborazione tra attori pubblici e privati.
C’è un altro settore in cui sarebbe estremamente necessario un approccio simile basato sull’espansione esponenziale, come sottolineato da Andrew Winston, coautore di Net Positive: How Courageous Companies Thrive by Giving More Than They Take: la sfida di prosperare e crescere gestendo i nostri impatti sociali e ambientali, in particolare il cambiamento climatico.
Quando ho avuto l’opportunità di approfondire il processo di definizione degli obiettivi di riduzione delle emissioni di CO2, in linea con l’obiettivo dell’Accordo di Parigi di limitare l’aumento della temperatura globale a meno di 2 gradi centigradi, mi sono resa conto di quanto velocemente la scienza ci dice che il mondo dovrebbe decarbonizzarsi. E dell’innovazione esponenziale necessaria raggiungere questi obiettivi ambiziosi.
Secondo il rapporto 2022 dell’Agenzia Internazionale per l’Energia, la produzione di energia rinnovabile ha già intrapreso un percorso di crescita esponenziale: la capacità globale delle fonti rinnovabili è destinata a raddoppiare nei prossimi cinque anni e il costo dei nuovi moduli solari è diminuito del 96% tra il 2000 e il 2020. Come nel caso dei semiconduttori, questo successo nel settore delle tecnologie pulite è il risultato di una combinazione di innovazione, investimenti, sostegno politico e aumento massiccio della capacità produttiva su larga scala.
Tuttavia, il percorso verso la sostenibilità richiede anche una ridefinizione globale dell’uso dell’acqua e del suolo, nonché una riduzione delle sostanze tossiche e della plastica nell’ambiente. A che punto siamo con la tecnologia per supportare questi obiettivi e quale approccio stiamo adottando?
Anche se sono state sviluppate recentemente plastiche biodegradabili, o bioplastiche, queste sono progettate per decomporsi solo negli impianti di compostaggio industriali e si degradano molto lentamente negli ambienti oceanici freddi e oscuri.
Alcuni ricercatori si sono chiesti se ci fosse un modo per evitare il problema dell’inquinamento da plastica pur beneficiando della durata, della versatilità e del basso costo della plastica. Supportato dal programma Convergence Accelerator della National Science Foundation, un gruppo chiamato Nereid Biomaterials sta sviluppando materiali plastici ecologici progettati per degradarsi negli ambienti oceanici. Il progetto è entrato nella Fase 2, in cui testeranno la loro bioplastica biodegradabile. Sono un team interdisciplinare di scienziati provenienti da diversi centri di ricerca universitari, bio-ingegneri di una startup – Mango.Materials – tutta a guida femminile ed esperti governativi che lavorano insieme.
Questo approccio va oltre l’open innovation, poiché pone alla base un cambiamento di paradigma, e potrebbe rappresentare una svolta positiva nella sfida del contrasto al cambiamento climatico in un prossimo futuro.
*Tecnologa, Presidente del Comitato Sostenibilità di un gruppo bancario quotato
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