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LA RESA DEI CONTI. PUBBLICI

2.576 commenti / Blog, Le protagoniste, Newsletter / Di

di Paola Tommasi*

Nei conti pubblici italiani non è tutto oro quello che brilla. La lettura ultrapositiva dei dati, i flussi di denaro facile dalla Bce e dall’Unione europea, i bassi tassi di interesse e la sospensione temporanea dei vincoli di bilancio rischiano di rivelarsi un boomerang. Il risveglio sarà brusco soprattutto nel nostro Paese, dove l’illusione è amplificata dalla grande apertura di credito accordata alla guida certamente competente ed esperta dell’attuale Presidente del Consiglio. A Palazzo Chigi c’è piena coscienza che fra un anno potremmo essere in un mare di difficoltà, ma si spera che nel frattempo qualcosa cambi.

La politica monetaria espansiva, cominciata proprio con il “Whatever it takes” di Mario Draghi, dura ormai da quasi dieci anni, ciclo economico già lungo che difficilmente potrà continuare. Così come è pressoché impossibile che la revisione dei parametri su debito e deficit avvenga a livello di Trattati, in quanto richiederebbe il voto unanime di tutti gli Stati membri. Verrà sicuramente fuori una revisione di facciata che cambierà poco nella sostanza, e all’Italia saranno richieste misure draconiane (e non draghiane) di rientro. Se a ciò si aggiunge che nel momento in cui cominceranno i controlli della Commissione europea sull’utilizzo dei fondi del PNRR, non è detto che l’Italia sarà in tempo con la tabella di marcia, rischiamo il blocco dei trasferimenti e a quel punto l’unica alternativa, nonostante la tradizionale contrarietà del centrodestra che però andrebbe ribadita con forza, sarà l’aumento delle tasse.

Cosa che non stupirebbe, considerato che già da molti anni la Commissione Ue nelle sue raccomandazioni chiede ai nostri governi di spostare la tassazione dal lavoro alla casa (con un aumento dei valori catastali) e ai consumi (Iva). Assunto fondato su un ragionamento ineccepibile dal punto di vista europeo ma inapplicabile al modello italiano. Dall’inizio degli anni ’70 alla fine dei ’90 – è il ragionamento a Bruxelles – tra debito pubblico e inflazione gli italiani si sono arricchiti, ora bisogna procedere al travaso al contrario. Ma ad arricchirsi sono stati gli attuali anziani mentre il conto deve essere pagato dai giovani che non ne hanno la forza, né hanno goduto dei benefici di quei decenni. Per riparare errori di un passato ormai lontano servirebbe quantomeno gradualità ma istituzioni Ue e mercati non hanno alcuna intenzione di concederla. La resa dei conti potrebbe cominciare già nel secondo semestre del 2022 e, se prima non mettiamo in sicurezza l’economia, saranno guai.

*Giornalista

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