di Laura Luigia Martini*
Il trading algoritmico è una forma di trading in cui l’operatività discrezionale viene integrata e almeno parzialmente sostituita con quella algoritmica, dando origine a una tecnologia che si avvale di codici computerizzati e analisi di grafici per aprire o chiudere posizioni finanziarie in base a parametri predefiniti dal trader. In altre parole, nel momento in cui determinate condizioni si verificano, l’algoritmo esegue l’ordine di acquisto o di vendita senza bisogno dell’ulteriore intervento dell’operatore per monitorare l’andamento dei mercati. Questo è ciò di cui il mondo del trading fa uso molto ampio da tempo, soprattutto nelle grandi Banche d’Affari. Facciamo ora un passo in più, tenendo presente che ci stiamo addentrando in un mondo in completa evoluzione – non a caso il titolo di questo articolo ricorda molto quello di una nota serie di fantascienza della mia giovinezza.
Quando gli algoritmi di trading diventano più sofisticati fino a inglobare funzionalità tipiche dell’Intelligenza Artificiale, quali ad esempio il machine learning, allora ci stiamo riferendo a strumenti di Intelligenza Artificiale applicata al trading (A.I. trading), ovvero a quel paradigma tecnologico capace di modellizzare complesse serie di dati e di generare “insight”, intuizioni basate su elementi concreti che ai modelli si riferiscono. In verità l’A.I. fa parte della nostra vita ormai da diversi anni e può essere definito come quel campo di ricerca finalizzato alla progettazione di sistemi in grado di dotare le macchine di una o più caratteristiche considerate tipicamente umane. Tra le altre applicazioni possiamo citare i Chatbot o Assistenti Virtuali utilizzati in svariati ambiti, dal Marketing, al supporto alle vendite, alla domotica oppure le tecniche di Natural Language Processing (NLP) in grado di favorire l’interazione e la comprensione uomo/macchina. L’A.I. correlata alla gestione del trading è a sua volta un’innovazione tecnologica in divenire, ma molto più sofisticata e complessa, soprattutto per l’elevato numero delle variabili in gioco. Vale la pena ricordare alcuni innegabili vantaggi che questo tipo di approccio introduce nel mondo del trading, come l’aumento della precisione nelle decisioni, la riduzione degli errori nell’elaborazione dei dati, il risparmio di tempo legato alla velocità di gestione delle transazioni e naturalmente il calo dei costi dovuto all’eliminazione o forte ridimensionamento del ricorso a importanti consulenze settoriali. Dato che l’opportunità di acquisto o di vendita di un’azione può essere basata sui dati storici del prezzo o sulle performance dell’azione, è altresì chiaro che la capacità di analizzare grandi quantità di dati in tempo reale porta a individuare pattern e tendenze nel mercato che consentono all’operatore di prendere decisioni di trading informate e anche di cogliere opportunità che, se non identificate e segnalate dall’A.I., sarebbero potute risultare non evidenti agli operatori stessi. Insomma, l’A.I. trading sembra essere quella frontiera tecnologica che i trader di tutto il mondo stanno cercando di oltrepassare al fine di acquisire un importante vantaggio competitivo sul mercato.
Ma è proprio così? L’A.I. trading è davvero quell’ambiente di algoritmi integrati di calcolo dinamico che sostituirà nel tempo tutti i parametri discrezionali dell’attuale mondo finanziario? Non è possibile oggi rispondere con certezza a questa domanda, dato l’iniziale stadio di sviluppo e utilizzo del trading basato su questa tecnologia. E non vi sto rifilando il solito “Ibis redibis non morieris in bello”, responso tra i più conosciuti della Sibilla, ambivalente e oscuro per via dell’incerta posizione di una virgola: la mia risposta riflette semplicemente la realtà. Nonostante quanto sin qui esposto, di fatto l’A.I. trading è e rimane pur sempre uno strumento al servizio di un operatore, ed essendo strumento di grande complessità va trattato solamente da chi ha una notevole esperienza, non solo in campo informatico ma anche nel trading. La supervisione dell’uomo è dunque imprescindibile e richiede continuo studio e aggiornamento per poter prendere decisioni consapevoli che tengano conto dei segnali generati dall’A.I., ma anche di quei rischi che sono connaturati a qualsiasi tipo di transazione finanziaria. Questo proprio perché i mercati sono condizionati da innumerevoli fattori umani, non da ultimo l’emotività, e dunque si muovono anche e spesso in maniera indipendente da qualsiasi meccanismo logico-deduttivo.
Così è oggi. Ma l’A.I. trading con ogni probabilità evolverà e progredirà in modalità continua, di pari passo con il progredire dell’A.I. E del domani non ci è dato sapere.
*SDA Bocconi School of Management, Advisory Board Member
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